9/19//24
The Nov WTI trading session settled at 71.16(+1.28), had a high of 71.53, a low of 69.13. Cash price is at 70.90 (-0.31), while open interest came in at 332,769. Higher on the day by +1.83% CLX traded above its 7 day (68.98) and its 20 day (70.41), but below its 50 day (73.42), and its 200 day (74.93) moving-averages. The COT report as of 9/13 showed commercials with a net short position of -207,021 (less short by 32,348 compared to last week) to non-commercials who are net long 174,881 (less long by -29,903 compared to last week).
We broke through the 20 day at 70.41 and had breakthrough off the back of the Fed cut, which I think it could hold despite the weak economic data here in the U.S. and China. The markets reacted to the fed cut rate by jumping over a percentage point in the big three indexes. The baseline support level still looks to be around $68 and a breakthrough buy level looks on the charts around $71 and change. More fuel to the war trade today as Israel launched airstrikes into Lebanon against Hezbollah, when and where and the severity of a retaliation is still to be determined. Yesterday the EIA showed that the week ending in September 13th U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5mbpd, down by 283,000bpd barrels from the previous week’s average and U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day, a decrease of 545,000bpd compared to the prior week. On Tuesday the API reported a -1.63mb draw for the week ending September 13th, a bigger draw than the forecasted ~0.2mb draw. This is the 12th straight week of lowering oil stockpiles.
Jim Rinaudo
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Walsh Trading
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