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Soybeans–
Soybeans traded slightly lower on Tuesday, however the 20/50MA did cross for the first time since May, which is a signal that soybeans could be headed lower. Soybean ratings are up 4 points to 70% good/excellent. The highest ratings are in Louisiana, North Caralina, and Missouri, while the lowest soybean ratings are in Michigan and Iowa. Michigan is rated at only 46% good/excellent, down 2 points compared to last week. Louisiana also leads the rest of the country in % of soybeans setting pods at 82%, followed by other southern states including Mississippi, and Alabama, all at 60+%. The rest of the states have soybean progress lagging behind, falling between 0 and 22%, with the Dakotas at 0% setting pods and North Carolina at 22%.
The trade deal with Indonesia is bullish for soybeans. Indonesia is a top 10 export destination for soybeans.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 995 (-6), high of 1002, low of 993. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1001 (-5). Cash price is at 998 (unchanged)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 265.3 (-2.4) high of 268.4, low of 264.5
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.56 (+0.39) high of 55.09, low of 53.94
The August Meal to Oil ratio (50.70% Meal – 49.30% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1004) 5-day, (1037) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1038) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1007) 5-day, (1031) 20-day, (1034) 50-day, (1028) 100-day, (1030) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (268.8) 5-day, (277.4) 20-day, (293.0) 50-day, (297.7) 100-day, (307.1) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (53.85) 5-day, (53.78) 20-day, (50.79) 50-day, (48.28) 100-day, (46.19) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 1st showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -23,023 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 425 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,209 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,591 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 2,771 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed meal Managed Money traders sold -21,858 contracts, moving to a net short position of -131,938 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,331 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,397. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -87,896 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 39,411 contracts after selling -4,908 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 63,772 contracts.
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CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 401 (+1), high of 406, low of 395. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 419 (+1). Cash price is 428 (+4)
According to the USDA, all but 7 states are expected to harvest more corn acres in 2025/26 compared to 2024/25. The largest gains are anticipated in Iowa +500k acres, Nebraska +280k acres, and Minnesota +270k acres. Many of the southern states are also expected to harvest more corn due to the friendly weather. Ohio and Pennsylvania are among the states expected to see a decline in harvested acres. Corn conditions were rated at 74%, no change from last week. Iowa leads the crop conditions ranking along with Pennsylvania and Kansas. It’s interesting to see Pennsylvania and Kansas leading crop ratings, while also being predicted to have lower corn acres harvested. The weak areas of these states are expected to weigh down the harvested acreage numbers.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (399) 5-day, (410) 20-day, (421) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (416) 5-day, (426) 20-day, (436) 50-day, (445) 100-day, (446) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that corn Managed Money sold -24,181 contracts bringing their net position to -206,463 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 34,649 contracts bringing their net position to -26,531. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -214,077 contracts.
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WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 538 (-3), with a high of 545, low of 535. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 558 (-3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 519 (-3). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 523 (+0.75).
The trade deal with Indonesia is bullish for wheat. Indonesia is a top 10 export destination for wheat. The USDA has 2025/26 wheat exports up 2.9% on the year. Sales were at an 8-year high as of the beginning of July. Spring wheat is seeing some divergence in crop ratings with Minnesota rated at 87% good/excellent, up 7 points on the week and Montana rated at only 4% good/excellent. Montana spring wheat ratings are up 2 points over last week. Chicago wheat closed below 540. The next resistance is 534, with not much support showing below this point on the chart until just above 500.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (545) 5-day, (553) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (564) 100-day, (583) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (565) 5-day, (574) 20-day, (572) 50-day, (586) 100-day, (602) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -63,071 contracts, having decreased their short position by 1,596 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,579 contracts to bring their net long position to 10,630 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -76,571 contracts.
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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