The June figures are history and now it’s time to refocus on weather and prepare for the June 28 acreage revisions reflecting conditions as of June 1 and the stocks-in-all-positions as of June 1. It’s also first notice day on July futures as well as the end of the month and quarter! Lots of fun at month’s end!
Winter wheat production was put at 1.274 billion bushels comprised of 794 mbu HRW, 258 mbu SRW and 199 mbu SWW. The numbers do not reflect quality which may become more of a concern as we are in harvest and cooler and wetter than normal weather conditions during harvest does not aid quality. Carryover projections were 485 HRW, 178 SRW and 69 SWW which compares with the month ago figures of 501, 183 and 69. So, hard red carryover slipped more than Chicago SRW despite increased production. The USDA might be suggesting higher feed use.
We’re a moving target on corn and beans until the growing season ends and we’ll be nervous for the next three to four months dealing with uneven pollination and when the growing season ends. Beyond weather, we’re still prisoners of politicians and the Federal Reserve. The USDA only dropped acreage by 3 million yet decreased yield significantly. There will be debate for the next few weeks as per the extent of acres lost because of the wet conditions.
World total ending stocks slipped to 786 million tonnes from last month’s 809 while wheat increased to 2964 from 293. Coarse grains in the world are projected to be at 320 million tonnes for carryover compared with last month’s 344.
Net result: WATCH THE WEATHER!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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