Winter wheat production as of June 1 is released by the USDA at 11:00 on Tuesday. We may be battling over the number of bushels and the quality of those bushels. Wet weather has added bushels in the month of May but wet weather in the months of June and July might lower test weight and have a very negative impact on quality. So, how many good bushels do we have when the crop gets in the bin? Basis levels will be the sign! What happens with spreads might be less logical. Kansas City spreads might get a little more friendly than Chicago as Kansas City is not tainted with the vomitoxin variable. But, if we stay wet in Mid June through mid July things might get very interesting in Chicago if 2 ppm stocks look attractive.
Corn planting progress should be at 100% by the June 17 report! We might not be at 100% of the 92.8 million acres projected by the USDA but we should be at 100% of the figure that will be released on the final report date in January 2020. The next big event will be scattered pollination periods across the Heartland. It’s going to be a difficult year getting a handle on crop size until the growing season ends with the first hard freeze. Heaven help us if it comes early!
Corn and bean spreads could remain on the defensive as we approach first notice day and Stocks-In-All-Positions and Plantings on June 28. The planting delay story may have played out but, we’ll be looking at wheat quality and corn pollination over the next 2 months. Always something to focus on!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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