MONDAY PM RADAR – FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
Dry over 90% of the Midwest and central/upper Plains. Scattered showers/storms over far northern TX Panhandle into OK Panhandle. Moderate rain and storms over interior south TX into southeast TX… into northern LA /southern ARK… central and northern MS with 60% coverage. Lighter showers and weak storms cover 30% of AL, GA, eastern TN, western NC, southeast KY into sw VA and western NC. Heavy rains over DC to NYC.
SUMMARY — NO MAJOR CHANGES IN 1-5D–6-10D – GFS ENSEMBLE WETTER FOR 11-15D
1-5 DAY – The 12z GFS, Canadian and European Models are unchanged… with no significant rains for 90% of the Midwest. In addition the GFS has ND, SD, eastern NEB dry BUT from western KS and eastern COL into all of OK and over all of ARK, LA, MD, GA, SC, NC … the GFS at 12z has 1-4″/ 25-100mm rains with 60-75% coverage. Most of the rain > than 4″/100mm are over Delta into the Gulf Coast states. EURO is similar — keeps big rain way south. Euro not as wet over OK and KS.
6-10 DAY – Good model agreement… GFS Model keeps rains SOUTH with all of MN, SD, eastern NEB, MN, IA, WI, ILL, MO, IND, OH = DRY. The GFS has 1-2″/ 25-50mm rains over western KS, eastern COL and all of OK, north half TX, all of ARK, LA, MD, GA, SC, NC and amounts are in the 1-5″/ 25-125mm rains. The best rains of greater than 4″/100mm are over southern OK and eastern SC/ NC. EURO keeps rains south… 2-5″/ 50-125mm over north third of TX, 75% OK and ARK with lighter rains up to 1.5″/ 38mm 60% coverage.
11-15 DAY – GFS ensemble turns WETTER which is something I have been saying would happen after AUG 15-20. The Canadian ensemble is also somewhat wetter.