The Monday afternoon radar shows moderate rains over central and eastern Kansas into north central Oklahoma with additional moderate rain showers over the base of the Texas panhandle and Western Texas.
12z GFS / CMC MODEL COMMENTS
1-5 DAY = There continues to remains significant model uncertainty as to how much rain is going to fall over the ECB in the next 5 days.
The GFS model has consistently shown a large area of 0.5 -1.5″/12-38mm covering 70% of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. The morning European and Canadian models from earlier Monday morning and at midday do NOT support this rain over the ECB. The GFS ensemble however shows light rains of 0.25-1.0″/ 6-25mm over 60 to 70% of the ECB.
Elsewhere, the midday GFS model continues to show moderate to significant rains of 0.75-2.0″/20-50mm over southern half of Minnesota and 60 to 70% of South Dakota and into central and northeastern Nebraska. And it has a 3rd area of 1-4″/25-100mm rains over western Texas … 1-3″/ 25-75mm rains over western Oklahoma and the Delta.
6-10 DAY = The operational GFS is quite wet over the entire Deep South and lower Plains in the 6-10 DAY. There is a large area of 1-4″/ 25-100mm rains stretching from northern Virginia and Washington, DC into the entire Southeast coast … covering all of Tennessee and Kentucky as well the southern third of Missouri … the southern half of Kansas … and all of Oklahoma, northern Texas …Arkansas …Louisiana and the Gulf Coast states. The heaviest rains on the midday GFS appear to fall over Oklahoma and northeastern Texas with isolated rainfall amounts up to 6″/ 150mm in those places.
To the north, there is a band of some light rains over the northern ECB on the operational /regular GFS.
However the GFS ensemble is significantly wetter and has the rain further north. It has a large area of 1-3″/ 25-75mm rains over Oklahoma …all of Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas …with 2″/50mm rains into southern Illinois and Indiana. Additionally, the GFS ensemble has 1″/25mm rains as far north as Interstate 80 — northern Ohio / northern Indiana / Chicago …southern half of Iowa and into the southern half of Nebraska.
11-15 DAY = The GFS continues to run fairly wet over all areas of the Midwest and central / lower Plains as well as the Southeastern states in the 11 to 15 day. It is not quite as wet as the early Monday morning European model was but it’s pretty close.
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