1-5 DAY – There is not much to change for next 5 days. The models are in better agreement this afternoon with all three models showing the best rains along or generally to the south of interstate 70. And in the areas between or north of interstate 70 but south of interstate 80 the rainfall amounts are less and the coverage is significantly less. The Canadian model and European models appears to have more rain over Arkansas.
6-10 DAY = All the models are significantly wetter in the 6-10D. The GFS has its rains centered over Western Missouri, Eastern Kansas and significant portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas but keep most of the rest of the Midwest and Delta regions dry. The European has a lot more rain further south showing a large area of 1-3″ /25-75mm rains across 70% of South Dakota … 80% of Iowa … 60% of Missouri and eastern Kansas and 70% across the northern half of Illinois …Indiana …all of Ohio. The Canadian model strongly supports the European solution.
The 6-10 D ensemble are in fairly good agreement. They all show rain returning into portions of the Plains and the WCB late in the 6-10D. The European is the wettest of all the models showing rainfall amounts up to 1.5″ 38mm / over 60 to 70% of the WCB and the northern half of the Plains.
11-15 DAY = The midday GFS model is wetter further to the south and heavier with a rain in the 11 to 15 day. The morning runs of the GFS has the rains mostly north of Interstate 80 but the afternoon run is significantly different with more rain further south. This is in close agreement to the afternoon European and Canadian models which are also quite wet.
CPC FORECAST MAPS–6-10 DAY
In the official CPC 6 to 10 day forecast RAINFALL shows Below Normal rainfall over all of the Midwest as well as the Delta … the Deep South and into the Middle Atlantic region. The central & lower Plains are in the Near Normal rainfall area while the Dakotas are in the above normal rainfall area. In fact the entire western third of the country is in the Above Normal rainfall area with Much Above Normal Rainfall over the Pacific Northwest. With respect to Temperatures … the entire West Coast is in Much Below Normal because of that massive trough in the Jet Stream and Below Normal temperatures are common over the eastern half of the country from the Mississippi River to the East Coast. Most of the WCB and all of the Plains are in Above Normal temperatures area.
CPC FORECAST – MAPS — 14 DAY
Shows some significant changes. RAINFALL – Most of the Plains and the WCB are in the Above Normal rainfall area while the ECB region is in the Near Normal. The Below Normal rainfall area covers all of the Delta … the entire Southeast up into New England …and into good portions of Tennessee and Kentucky. To the west all the Rockies as well as the entire West Coast is in the Above OR Much Above normal rainfall area. TEMPS — the entire eastern 2/3 country from the Rockies eastward to the East Coast shows Above Normal or Much Above Normal temperatures while all the western third of the country from the Rockies to the West Coast is in the Below are Much Below Normal temperature area.
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