MONDAY AFTERNOON RADAR – The Monday afternoon radar shows heavy showers and storms over far southeastern Texas, all Louisiana into western Mississippi. There is additional moderate rain showers and a few weak storms over central and northeastern Kansas… into northwestern Missouri and far west central Illinois. An area of moderate rain and showers can be found over eastern Wyoming, western & central South Dakota, central North Dakota into southern Manitoba with 50% coverage in those areas.
1-5 DAY = The model agreement is very strong all the next five day on the Monday afternoon GFS model (left) and the Canadian model (right). Both models agree that the majority of significant rain is going to be across the gulf coast states, the Southeastern states into Virginia and Maryland. Both models show a second area of significant rain covering 75% of the entire ECB with the rainfall amounts between 1-3″ /25-75mm inches. The models agree that most of the WCB will see some areas of rain but they’ll be very light and most of the Plains look to be quite dry.
6-10 DAY = there are massive model disagreements here between the GFS model and the Canadian. As you can see the GFS shows a large area of significant rain covering the entire Midwest from the PA/ OH border all the way to the west into western and central NEB and KS. Some rainfall amounts reach over 4″100mm in the WCB but in general the Monday afternoon regular Canadian model shows a widespread 1-3″ 25-75mm rains across the Midwest with 75 to 80% coverage. The midday Canadian model is totally different showing no significant rains over any portion of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, most of Ohio, eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas or southern portions of South Dakota. Obviously these 2 solutions are diametrically opposed to each other and it would make no sense to take a compromise of the two.
The ensemble model agreement here is very good as both models show the general overall rainfall pattern. Both models show the best rains again over eastern half of Texas, all of Louisiana, Mississippi, most of Arkansas, northern Alabama, much of Tennessee, Kentucky, all of Ohio into Virginia and Pennsylvania. The GFS model has a bit more rain hanging back across Indiana, Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin than the GFS model does. Again that being said the model agreement here is quite good.
11-15 DAY= There is not much to change here. The GFS has an area of moderate rainfall over most of Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma which extends into portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia. The rest of the Midwest sees some rain but it is not significant over this 5 day interval. The Canadian model is similar but the rainfall amounts are heavier and they cover much of the Deep South but the GFS does not.