The radar map is much quieter this afternoon than it was just 24 hours ago. There is some scattered rain and numerous showers over far eastern portions of Iowa … eastern Minnesota … northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin. The main LOW pressure area itself is now over the eastern Great Lakes and its associated cold front is bringing showers and a line of thunderstorms that is moving through far western Pennsylvania … West Virginia … into southwest portions of Virginia … western North Carolina … far northwest South Carolina and into Georgia.
1-5D = there are no significant changes in the forecast based on the afternoon models. There is some dispute as to how much rain is going to fall over central Missouri and central Illinois. The GFS model is more aggressive than the Canadian model and it has more significant rain into central Missouri and central Illinois than the Canadian model. However, both models show significant rains over the flooded areas of Southern Missouri with rainfall amounts ranging from 1-3″/ 25-75mm.
6-10DAY = no changes here either. The model agreement is very strong that most of the Plains and the Midwest will see a dry interval with temperatures recovering back to normal levels over the Plains but still remain below normal east of Mississippi River.
11-15 DAY = The extended GFS and Canadian models continue to show fairly wet looking pattern. The operational GFS shows a lot of rain returning to the central Plains and the Midwest while the GFS ensembles are not quite that wet. Even so the GFS ensemble and the Canadian ensembles remain very consistent and do show significant rains across a good portion of the central Plains and the Midwest for Middle of MAY.
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