The last fed meeting for Janet Yellen and for 2017 is on tap to begin Tuesday. An announcement at 1 PM Wednesday for a 1/4 point rise in discount rate is almost certainly in the works and shouldn’t have any directional effect on current trading levels. The FOMC forecasts and press conference following the meeting might. Powell will then take …
Ag Commentary
The commentary will return monday Happy Holidays
Ag Commentary
The beans took another beating today along with the meal. The weather in South America offered a bit more chances for moisture. There remains some long term questions regarding the dryness. The export sales remain disappointing and are well behind a year ago. This will add carryover most likely in the next report. The technical outlook now offers support and will until the …
Notes and Bonds Await Employment and Consumer Confidence Numbers
Data due tomorrow is holding up the trading volume today as the long end of the treasury market remains within the bounds of the recent trading range . The claims number fell to 5 week lows and ADP estimate was 190,000 jobs created nationwide. All things considering it’s a pretty good performance by economy .The more important data points arrive …
See a Penny Pick It Up: March Copper Futures
March Copper The copper market has given up a bit of its gains over the last month and a half. The advance commencing from early 2016 appears to be rising in an a-b-c pattern. The highs before Halloween peaked out at the 50% retracement level from the extremes of early 2011. I believe that currently we are just …
Ag Commentary
The markets broke today sharply because stats Canada released the crop estimates. The Canola crop was upped considerably. In addition a few more specs of rain are predicted. The longer term will still remain dry at least at present. The funds bought meal going home and drove it back up towards unchanged. The South American crop is important and a …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle The February Live Cattle contract tested the 123.125 resistance level early in the trading session on Tuesday morning, trading to the session high at 122.625. It broke down from here trading through support at 121.20 and 120.50 on its way to the session low at 119.575. This is just above the 119.15 support level. It formed an outside …
Notes and Bonds Build on Yesterday’s Rebound
The recovery from Sunday night’s gap lower continues today for notes and bonds increasing the chances that the lows hit as markets opened for the week on Sunday night will hold up. The opposite trade is underway in the Dow, S&P and Russell stock indexes as they sell off from Sunday night’s extreme high print. The NASDAQ which started it’s …
Ag Macro
The Soy continues its rally based on weather. The general belief now is that south America is under a La Nina scenario, which if true, could bring dryness to much of Argentina through the spring. some of this is speculation but the chance is there and has the market thinking. It is estimated funds bought beans as much as 8,000 …
The Grass is Always Greener: US Dollar
December US Dollar Futures Last month’s harsh treatment of our beloved greenback saw the currency giving back over 60% of its gain from the mid September rebound. Currently trading near 93.30 puts the contract in my opinion poised to reach for higher prices. I believe we are in the early stages of the c wave of an a-b-c …