Quiet day overall. President Trump slapped some tariffs . This had little effect. The private guesses on acreage are coming in. Bean acres 1-2 million more. Corn one million less on average. The weather patterns in Arg are wetter . Some are adding a few bushels back. Remains to be seen. The export program from Brazil will cut into the …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle The June Live Cattle contract made another new low for the down move, trading to a low of 106.65 on Wednesday, March 21, 2018. It made an early test of the trendline (109.25) as it opened at 109.00 and up ticked to 109.125 before breaking down and trading through the 108.65 support level. It consolidated near 108.65 and …
Grain Spreads
Moves aplenty in the grain complex since last Fridays close has afforded the hedger and spreader phenomenal opportunities for both futures and options trades. Lets examine what to look for going forward. This includes retracement bounces and further liquidations in beans and wheat that potentially could reveal sizable moves in price in the near term as we near one of …
Metals on the Move After FOMC
The FOMC met the last two days and just released their commentary showing an as expected quarter point raise to the fed funds rate. This was a much anticipated meeting as this was Chairman Powell’s first quarterly meeting as chair and first news conference. Because of long liquidation and profit taking in the USD, which was in the red prior …
Tariff Victims, Grain longs loaded up?
Fast market conditions may have begun. This feels to me like a big meat blow, funds were long. MEAT ALERTS- live, Hogs has an OLB by lows and holding yest. Tariff talk may put nail in coffin for soybean fund longs? @ day puts may be lotto ticket, 2 days into announcement. Are funds really record long in meal? 110,000 …
Huggin the Curb: June S&P Futures
June S&P Futures The S&P market traded in a narrow range in today’s session. The 20 period daily ATR (average true range) which checks in at over 34 pts contracted on a one day measurement to a mere 2pts (open to close). Of other note is the fact that the June contract settled within a pitching wedge of …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle The June Live Cattle contract is now the lead contract as the volume is greater here than in April. June made another new low for the down move, trading to a low of 108.90 on Tuesday, March 20, 2018. It ended the day nearby at 109.05. It ended the day below trendline support (109.25) and above the 108.65 …
AG
The Beans and Meal finished the day with modest gains. The market is looking at rainfall in ARG. The Brazilizn crop is being harvested on a very quick pace. The availability is high and the sales have been huge. Meaning the Brazilian exports are moving. The next three to four months the US will take a back seat. The one …
Metals Slide on Equity and USD, Long Opportunity?
Metals trended lower today given the upcoming FOMC meeting, a rally in the stock markets and increase in the USD. All metals fared similarly down between 1/2 to 1%. Silver is getting down near a long term support, approaching $16, which could be a good entry point for bulls as the white metal has traded between $16-$17 since the beginning …
Tri-Tanic: May Crude Oil
May Crude Oil I’ve been watching the crude market form what I believe to be a b wave triangle. I don’t think it is quite complete at this juncture. In my opinion we have recently run up to complete the c wave of the a-b-c-d-e pattern. I am patiently waiting for the d and e to materialize. This …