Market Commentary

walshtrading General Commentary, Grains Leave a Comment

AG

SOY

The beans were under pressure today . The WASDE report tomorrow may have been a reason there was liquidation today . A few thoughts to consider . Tomorrow the USDA should confirm the recent carry numbers in soy. The market is looking at A recent run up that was and is essentially fueled by bio diesel demand . The oil share is approx 48% . The recent run up has put US bean oil at a real premium over south american oil . It is important to note however the spread is not that large when considering the tax it would take the south american ,19% to export veg oil to the US . Due to this , I dont believe the markets are done gaining . Especially the share itself . The beans while tight also need to consider the time of year and the fact that the US will not be competitive at present for beans .  The meal has some issues as the crush is driven by demand for oil . Lets see what tomorrow brings , Watch the forecast after the report . The market will be tuned in to the 7 day forecast . Further dryness in the Dakotas especially will be a large concern.

CORN

The corn had a very large range today . Trading higher and lower throughout the day . The ethanol report today helped fuel the come back , both flat price and with the july forward spreads .   I am moving my thoughts to new crop as the old crop story perhaps has sailed as I have indicated for some time . The USDA should confirm the tighter carry tomorrow . Things to watch for now . The Chinese continuing large purchases from the US . This is needed to push the market higher . The global production numbers , which will be important into next year . Lets see what the Wasde tells us tomorrow.

Weather Thoughts

There were and are a few showers added to various parts on the northern belt and the southern Canadian growing areas . These are short lived however . The dryer weather will return over the weekend and look to persist through next week. The weather is fickle , predicting past next week today seems futile.      

BE WELL,

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.​

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *