The beans were under pressure today . The WASDE report tomorrow may have been a reason there was liquidation today . A few thoughts to consider . Tomorrow the USDA should confirm the recent carry numbers in soy. The market is looking at A recent run up that was and is essentially fueled by bio diesel demand . The oil share is approx 48% . The recent run up has put US bean oil at a real premium over south american oil . It is important to note however the spread is not that large when considering the tax it would take the south american ,19% to export veg oil to the US . Due to this , I dont believe the markets are done gaining . Especially the share itself . The beans while tight also need to consider the time of year and the fact that the US will not be competitive at present for beans . The meal has some issues as the crush is driven by demand for oil . Lets see what tomorrow brings , Watch the forecast after the report . The market will be tuned in to the 7 day forecast . Further dryness in the Dakotas especially will be a large concern.
The corn had a very large range today . Trading higher and lower throughout the day . The ethanol report today helped fuel the come back , both flat price and with the july forward spreads . I am moving my thoughts to new crop as the old crop story perhaps has sailed as I have indicated for some time . The USDA should confirm the tighter carry tomorrow . Things to watch for now . The Chinese continuing large purchases from the US . This is needed to push the market higher . The global production numbers , which will be important into next year . Lets see what the Wasde tells us tomorrow.
There were and are a few showers added to various parts on the northern belt and the southern Canadian growing areas . These are short lived however . The dryer weather will return over the weekend and look to persist through next week. The weather is fickle , predicting past next week today seems futile.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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