Macro Ag

John Walsh Grains Leave a Comment

SOY – The bean market overall had a lackluster day. The oil share lost again today and remains in a lower end of a range.  Weather is the key word today and the primary focus barr anything. this makes little sense to me considering the global growth in the carry , but viewed as a price opportunity I suppose. The weather remains positive in Brazil. RGD has become a bit dry at present. The Argentinian concerns are relegated to certain areas. I cant ever remember a crop year where there wasn’t a area or two that had a more difficult time. Anyway, the market will dial in a bit more premium if the forecast is dry. looking at some longer term thoughts. The Canadian bean crop is larger as is the Canola crop. The availability of oilseeds in general is more than ample to say the least.  The US farmer is all but done with this years harvest. The yields did not disappoint. It is important to consider the 2018 and 2019 price of beans on the board. Regarding the meal and oil prices. The meal will remain in the drivers seat until the market becomes comfortable with the south American prospects. It is fairly clear there is a continual interest in ramping up global biofuel production and use. This bodes well for the crush certainly, but also oil demand. Where to put the meal. ? With board margins at almost $1.00, the crusher will keep on keepin on.  Lets look at deferred bean spreads, deferred meal spreads, the crush

I welcome any conversation in agreement or debate, call for a further outlook or to plan next years sales

Be Well

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