Macro Ag

John Walsh Grains Leave a Comment

The markets really are fairly void of volatile moves. the days seem to labor through of late. The oil share made a significant gain back today. Yesterday saw the opposite. Looking down the line. The beans will be focused on the weather in South America. It is early from a calendar perspective. There will be much adjustment in coming days regarding forecasts. the market can move a bit higher just on weather. These rallies should be looked upon as opportunity. It would take a real serious weather problem to change the overall scenario on the global carry. Therefore a rally from here presents a opportunity to quantify a risk. The 2018 and 2019 nov beans are at or above 10.00 . Rich real estate.     The USDA baseline projections predicts a 1 million acres increase for next year. Given price relationships this may be understated.  A few things of note to watch. The crush margins on the board at or above a dollar. The july18-nov18 bean spread above 20cents. Some of these things do not add up in my opinion.

The corn continues its daily grind lower. The world is purchasing plenty of available corn ready and available. The feedgrain growth from latin America, and the black sea remains robust. This proves difficult to overcome in the long run. The USDA baseline suggests a 91 million acre corn number, up a half million from this past year. This does little to curb the growth in the carryover. If these numbers become the reality the price projections remain sideways to weak at best. It is my thought the corn acres could decline given the price relationships. This in turn could stabilize the domestic scenario. Also the global demand remains robust. This could provide a modest decline in corn stocks globally into next year.

 

Be Well

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *