Long Way to Go

Steve Bruce General Commentary Leave a Comment

                                We’ve a long way to go this crop year! It’s anyone’s guess as to what figure the USDA releases for planting progress tonight. The “normal” for this week of the year is 91% planted for corn and 62% planted on beans. We’ve been hearing and seeing corn estimates at 70% +/- 5% and beans at 30%, yet beans are an afterthought as there’s still time! Wheat condition will be interesting as Oklahoma and Texas and Arkansas have been pounded and there was some disbelief last week when the USDA said that the condition improved in hard red wheat states despite the deluge over last weekend. Might be another week of suspension of disbelief with the USDA figures.

                                Scattered pollination,  early frost and other factors are creeping into conversations, too! Also, the possibility of importing South American corn and beans and increased wheat feeding if quality slips.  How many corn acres don’t get planted? And, those that do might expect a significant loss in yield potential. Stating the obvious but, things change,  just like it did when we were  below the cost of production three weeks ago and prudent end users took extended coverage via buying futures and bullish option strategies.  Prudent producers might be looking at the opportunities presented in the new crop 2020 and 2021 contracts. These contracts are tools, not toys!

                                Spreads tightened a bit given the fund short covering in the front months yet, the stories are in new crop corn and beans. Quality is the story with wheat and we have to hope for warmer and drier conditions in the next six weeks to ensure a decent harvest. Millers are on pins and needles right now as the circumstances are lowering protein and falling numbers in those areas where we’ve turned and ready to go. Traders will be looking at the Texas and Oklahoma condition report a little closer tonight.

                The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.     

Join My Mailing List




Steve Bruce

               
Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
sbruce@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com


Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604



Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *