Live Cattle
The April Live Cattle contract made a new low for the down move on Tuesday, March 13, 2018. It traded past the March 8th low (120.90) to 120.75, which is just above the 120.50 support level. It rallied from here, trading up to the session high (122.575) at the end of the day. It dipped lower and ended the day at 122.20. The high touched resistance at the declining 8 DMA (122.55) and just past the 100 DMA (122.40), ending the session just below both moving averages. It formed a hammer candlestick and bulls are hopeful the Live Cattle hammered out the low for move with Tuesday’s low. If Live Cattle can rally past the Tuesday high, price may test resistance at 123.125 and then 124.70. A break down below the Tuesday open (121.75) could see support tested at 121.325, then 120.50 and 119.15.
The negotiated cash trade in Texas is moderate on moderate demand with live sales 1.00 higher than last week at 127.00. Trade in Kansas is moderate on moderate demand with live sales steady to 1.00 higher than last week at 126.00-127.00. Trade is slow in all other feeding regions as producers continue to pass on current bids. Tuesday afternoon boxed beef cutout values were steady to weak on Choice and Select on light to moderate demand and offerings. Choice was down 0.17 to 223.73 and Select was down 0.74 at 216.75 on 117 loads. The choice/ select spread widened to 6.98. The estimated cattle slaughter for Tuesday was reported at 118,000.
Feeder Cattle
The April Feeder Cattle contract broke down and tested support at 140.775, making the low just above it at 141.025. A late day surge took price up to the high for the day at 143.20, then falling back and ending the day at 142.375. It also formed a hammer candlestick. A rally above the Tuesday high could see price test the declining 8 DMA now at 144.325. Resistance is nearby at 144.70. A breakdown from 142.375 could see price revisit the Tuesday low and support at 140.775.
Lean Hogs
The April Lean Hogs contract broke out above the consolidation range (68.325 – 66.425) and traded up to the 21 DMA (68.95) reaching 68.85. It couldn’t hold the rally and broke down, trading to 67.475, just above the session low (67.425). It formed a Doji candlestick. The consolidation range has now expanded to include the February 28th high at 69.50 to the 66.425 low. A break down below 67.425 could send price down towards support at 66.425. A breakout above 67.80 could lead to a retest of the 21 DMA. The 200 DMA is next at 69.60.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursday, March 15th at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.* *
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
www.walshtrading.com
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.