Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary

Walsh Trading Daily Insights


April Lean Hogs gap opened higher, pulled back to close the gap, recovered and traded to the session high at 87.30. The high is just above the key level at 87.10 and price didn’t stay up here long, pulling back and  then making one more attempt to rally that failed. It traded down to the session low at 85.675 by mid-morning and then consolidated in the middle of the range, and then traded lower once again, approaching the low and settling at 86.025. The breakdown took price below the 8-DMA at 86.50 to support at the 21-DMA at 85.625. The cash and cutout markets continue to struggle, unable to gather up steam as pork demand is seemingly good for exports but maybe not so much domestically as our export sales were strong at 51,900 MT with Mexico at 25,000 MT and China next at 12,100 MT. The cutouts and cash are moving higher, but not at the rate to justify the price action in the futures market, in my opinion. Cash needs to get more aggressive to the upside or futures could take a tumble, in my opinion. The expectations are for higher prices, but cash has to make a move higher sooner rather than later. If Hogs take out support at the 21-DMA and then 85.325, we could see futures test support at 83.325. If settlement holds, we could re-visit resistance at 87.10. Resistance then comes in at 88.325.

The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 84.52 as of 02/23/2023.

The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 77.73 as of 02/22/2023.

Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 467,000, which is below last week’s 478,000 and last year’s 472,000. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 167,000, which is above last week’s 107,000 and 126,000. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,375,000, which is below last week’s 2,505,000 and last year’s 2,492,000.

Cod Storage: Frozen pork supplies were up 13 percent from the previous month and up 19 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 11 percent from last month and up 57 percent from last year.

For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, March 2, 2023, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

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**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163


Fax: 312.256.0109

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​
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