Walsh Trading Daily Insights
Commentary
December Lean Hogs made another new high for the fledging up move at 80.825. The low was 79.20. It settled at 80.70. The cash market continues to firm and December is ever closer to becoming the spot contract as well as the lead contract based on volume. It is well below the index and we are seeing some catch-up to the index. The WASDE Report showed the USDA raising 3rd quarter pork production on higher-than-expected slaughter. There wasn’t any change to expected 4th Quarter production. 2023 production is lowered on lower-than-expected farrowings and modest growth in pigs per litter. It lowered pork imports and exports for 2022. The report showed expected exports to be lower for 2023 on lower domestic supply. The USDA also expects demand to weaken overseas. It also lowered 2022 expected hog prices and did the same for 2023. Demand worries and competition from increased broiler supplies are their reasons. Settlement was above resistance which is a positive for Hogs. If settlement holds, we could see price test resistance at the declining 21-DMA now at 81.40. Resistance then comes in at 81.70. If price fails at 80.45, we could test support at 79.80. Support then comes in at 78.80.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 101.39 as of 10/11/2022.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 92.95 as of 10/10/2022.
Estimated Slaughter for Wednesday is 491,000 which is above last week’s 487,000 and last year’s 474,000. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,468,000, which is above last week’s 1,439,000 and last year’s 1,430,000.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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