Walsh Trading Daily Insights
Commentary
August Lean Hogs opened higher, traded to the session low at 102.15 and then reversed course and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 106.425 and settling at 105.95. The rally stalled just shy of resistance at the declining 21-DMA at 106.525. There is strong resistance just above here at 106.85 and the declining 50-DMA at 107.025. If price can overcome the 50-DMA we could test resistance at 107.925. Resistance then comes in at the 100-DMA at 109.425. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 104.35.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 107.75 as of 7/4/2022.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 110.70 as of 6/30/2022.
Estimated Slaughter for Tuesday is 458,000, which is above last week’s 450,000 and below last year’s 464,000. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 460,000, which is below last week’s 908,000 and last year’s 472,000.
August Feeder Cattle opened higher and rallied to the session high at 176.325, then sold off the rest of the session to the low at 172.45. It settled near the low at 172.70. Even with corn taking a beating, Feeders couldn’t hold onto its early rally as forays into the 175.70 resistance level has been beaten back. Settlement was below support at 173.325 and a failure from settlement could see futures work its way lower to test support at 172.00 and then work its way lower to test support at 169.95. If price can overtake resistance at 173.325, we could see a re-test of resistance at 175.70. Resistance then comes in at the June 9th high at 176.875.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 165.67 as of 6/30/2022. (not update yet for Tuesday)
August Live Cattle opened higher, made the high at 135.075 and then broke down the rest of the session to the low at 132.675. It settled near the low at 132.925. The low and settlement was below the 132.95 support level. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 130.45. If price can reclaim resistance at 132.95, we could see price test resistance at 134.55. Resistance then comes in at the 200-DMA at 135.925.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts increased 0.84 to 264.66 and select decreased 0.60 to 239.87. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 24.79 and the load count was 109.
Tuesday’s estimated slaughter is 126,000, which is even with last weeks and above last year’s 120,000. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 128,000, which is below last week’s 251,000 and last year’s 132,000.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Tuesday negotiated cash trading has been at standstill in all major feeding regions. Last week in the Texas Panhandle live purchases traded from 137.00-138.00. In Kansas live purchases traded at 138.00. For the prior week in Nebraska live and dressed purchases traded from 145.00- 151.00 and at 234.00, respectively. In Colorado live purchases traded at 145.00. For the previous week in the Western Cornbelt live and dressed purchases traded from 147.00-150.00 and at 234.00, respectively.
The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far).
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Friday, July 8, 2022 at 2:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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