Walsh Trading Daily Insights
October Lean Hogs opened higher at the low of the session (88.20) and rallied to the session high at 89.825, settling nearby at 89.50. Settlement is just above the 200 DMA at 89.25 on the continuous chart. If price can hold above the 200 DMA, we could see a test of resistance at 90.40. Resistance then comes in at 92.375. A failure from the 200 DMA could see support re-tested at 88.325 and then 87.10. Support then comes in at 85.325.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 123.81 as of 7/30/2021.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 112.08 as of 7/29/2021.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 414,000, which is below last week’s 463,000 and last year’s 426,000. Friday’s slaughter was revised lower to 424,000. This lowers the estimated total for last week to 2,312,000, which is below last week’s 2,332,000 and last year’s 2,537,000.
September Feeder Cattle opened higher and traded up to the session high at 163.425. The high is just below resistance at 163.50 and with corn rallying, proved to be to much for the market to bear and prices fell the rest of the session making the low at 161.725. It settled at 161.975. The low and settlement was below the key level at 162.00. A breakdown from settlement could see support re-tested at 160.625. Support then comes in from 157.94 – 157.30. If feeders can hold overtake the key level at 162.00, a re-test of resistance at 163.50 is possible.
October Live Cattle opened higher and fell asleep at the wheel, trading in a tight range from 127.85 to 127.05. It settled near the low at 127.275. A breakdown from the low could see price test support at 126.625. Support then comes in at 125.80. If settlement holds, we could see a re-test of the key level at 128.10. Resistance then comes in at the July 27th high at 129.875 and then 130.45.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts jumped 2.54 to 281.00 and select surged 4.19 to 263.38. The choice/ select spread narrowed to 17.62 and the load count was 127.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 119,000, which is even with last week and above last year’s 112,000.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far for Monday negotiated cash trading has been limited on very light demand in Nebraska. Not enough purchases for a full market trend. Negotiated cash trading has been at a standstill in all other major feeding regions. Last week in the Southern Plains live purchases traded at 120.00. In Nebraska last week live and dressed purchases traded at 122.00 and 196.00, respectively. In the Western Cornbelt last week live and dressed purchases traded from 123.00-125.00 and 195.00- 201.00, respectively.
The USDA is indicating cash trades this week for live cattle at 125.00 and 197.00 on a dressed basis (so far).
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, August 5, 2021 at3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Senior Market Strategist
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