Walsh Trading Daily Insights
Commentary
August Lean Hogs started higher and rallied past resistance at 101.975 to the session high at 102.85. It settled at 102.35. The low was the opening trade at 100.275. If price can’t hold support at 101.975, a re-test of support at 100.075 is possible. Support then comes in at 98.475 and then 97.30. If price can hold settlement, a test resistance at the rising 100 DMA (104.16) and 104.30 is possible.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 114.79 as of 7/02/2021.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 111.26 as of 7/01/2021.
Estimated Slaughter for Tuesday is 466,000, which is above last week’s 461,000 and below last year’s 473,000. The weekly estimated total (so far) is 473,000, which is lower than last week’s 915,000 and last year’s 923,000.
August Feeder Cattle loved the limit down move in corn, surging to a new high for the up move at 160.925. It made the low at 157.75 and rallied the rest of the session, settling near the high at 160.625. The surge took price past resistance at 160.625 and settlement was right at this level. If feeders can hold settlement, and corn breaks down, a test of resistance at 162.00 is possible. Resistance then comes in at 163.50. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 157.30 and then 156.075.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 145.96 as of 7/01/2021. (not updated yet for 7/2/22021)
August Live Cattle continued its listless trade, making an inside candle within an inside candle within an inside candle …. Therefore… going nowhere fast. The Tuesday range was 122.475 high and 121.15 low. It settled just below the high at 122.40. Settlement was just below resistance at 122.825. If price can rally past resistance, a re-test of resistance at 124.30 is possible. Resistance then comes in at 125.80. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 121.90, 120.80 and then 119.375.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts increased 1.24 to 286.68 and select decreased 1.10 to 263.31. The choice/ select spread widened to 23.37 and the load count was 120.
Tuesday’s estimated slaughter is 122,000, which is above last week’s 120,000 and last year’s 117,000. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 130,000, which is below last week’s 238,000 and last year’s 231,000.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far for Tuesday negotiated cash trading in Nebraska and Western Cornbelt has been mostly inactive. Not enough purchases for a market trend. In the Southern Plains negotiated cash trading has been at a standstill. Last week in the Southern Plains live purchases traded from 120.00-122.00. For the prior week in Nebraska live and dressed purchases traded from 125.00-126.50 and at 198.00, respectively. For the previous week in the Western Cornbelt live and dressed purchases traded from 124.00-126.00 and 197.00-202.00, respectively.
The USDA is indicating no cash trades this week for live cattle and dressed trades at 199.00 – 202.00 (so far).
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Friday, July 9, 2021 at 2:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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