Live Cattle
On Monday August 6, 2018 the October Live Cattle contract matched the Friday high at 112.15 and sagged. It made the low at 111.225 and settled at 111.55. It couldn’t trade above resistance at 112.35 and couldn’t trade below support at 110.80. A breakout above 112.35 could lead to a test of resistance at 113.90. Resistance then comes in at 114.65. A failure from settlement could test 110.80. Support then comes in at 109.825 and then 108.85. On Monday negotiated cash trade was mostly inactive in all major feeding regions. Monday afternoon beef cutout values were higher on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings. Choice was up 0.93 at 205.68 with Select up 1.24 to close at 198.33 on 96 loads. The choice/ select spread narrowed to 7.35. The hide and offal value from typical fed cattle for today was estimated at 9.27 per cwt live, unchanged from Friday’s value. The estimated cattle slaughter for Monday was reported at 118,000.
Feeder Cattle
The September Feeder Cattle contract tested resistance at 153.50 on the open, making it the high for the day then meandering lower for the rest of the session. It made the low at the end of the trading session at 151.725 (just above 151.55 support) and settled at 151.85. It settled below the key level at 152.30 and will be the key to trade for Tuesday, in my opinion. A rally above 152.30 could see 153.50 re-tested. Trading past 153.50 could see a test of resistance at 154.25. Resistance then comes in at 155.275. Trading below settlement could see price retest support at 151.55, 150.90, 149.975 and then 148.40.
Lean Hogs
The October Lean Hogs contract traded within the Friday Range (52.15 – 49.35), making the high just above the 51.80 resistance level at 51.975 and the low at 50.00, just above the 49.925 support level. It settled at 50.225. A breakdown below the 50.00 low could see the 49.35 level tested again and then a possible new low for the down move. Support then comes in at 48.725. A rebound from settlement could see the high retested. Resistance then comes in at 53,80.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursday, August 9th at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.* *
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109,
www.walshtrading.com
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.