Live Cattle
On Thursday July 5, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract consolidated in a quiet trading session. It traded in a range from 107.575 high to the low at 106.30, settling near the low at 106.375. A breakdown below the 106.025 support level could lead to a test of support at 104.85. A bounce off the Thursday low could see the 107.35 resistance level retested. Negotiated cash trade on Thursday was mostly inactive on light demand in all major feeding regions. Thursday afternoon boxed beef cutout values were lower on light demand and moderate offerings. Choice was down 1.83 at 208.43 with Select down 1.01 to close at 198.70 on 134 loads. The choice/ select spread narrowed to 9.73. The hide and offal value from typical fed cattle for today was estimated at 9.47 per cwt live, down 0.01 from Wednesday’s value. The estimated cattle slaughter for Thursday was reported at 120,000, last week 120,000 and a year ago 118,000.
Feeder Cattle
The August Feeder Cattle contract made another new high for the up move at 153.525, just above resistance at 153.50. It couldn’t hold above resistance and fell back, trading down to the 152.30 support level, making the session low at 152.125 and settling just above it at 152.575. The 152.30 support level could key trading on Friday. A breakdown below it could see price test the June 20th high (150.75) and then 149.975. A rebound from settlement could see the 153.50 resistance level revisited and a push above it could lead to a test of resistance at 154.25.
Lean Hogs
The August Lean Hogs contract spent it second day consolidating within the July 2nd trading range (77.15 – 73.825). It traded between 76.85 and 75.35 and settled at 76.05. Trading below settlement could see support tested at 75.625 and then 74.125. Trading above the high could lead to a test of resistance at 77.80.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Friday, July 6th at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.* *
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
www.walshtrading.com
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.