Live Cattle
On Monday July 2, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract made another new high for the up move trading up to 108.45, just shy of resistance at 108.65. It didn’t remain up here for long as cattle pulled back and settled at 106.90. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 106.025 and the 104.85. A rally from settlement could see a retest of resistance and a breakout above resistance could see the 200 DMA tested at 109.25. On Monday negotiated cash trade was at a standstill in all major feeding regions. Monday afternoon beef cutout values were steady on moderate demand and heavy offerings. Choice was down 0.08 at 211.88 with Select up 0.20 to close at 198.77 on 134 loads. The choice/ select spread narrowed to 13.11. The hide and offal value from typical fed cattle for today was estimated at 9.48 per cwt live, unchanged from Friday’s value. The estimated cattle slaughter for Monday was reported at 119,000.
Feeder Cattle
The August Feeder Cattle contract continued higher, making another new high at 153.05, just shy of resistance at 153.50. It also pulled back off the high and settled at 151.925. A pullback in front of the July 4th holiday could see the June 20th high (150.75) tested. Support then comes in at 149.975. A rebound from settlement could see the Monday high tested and then a push to resistance at 154.25 is possible.
Lean Hogs
The August Lean Hogs contract opened at 76.30, traded to the session high at 77.175 then collapsed, trading past the Friday low on its way to the low at 73.825. It settled at 74.375. The session high approached resistance at 77.80 and the low was just past support at 74.125. It settled above support. A break down below the 74.125 support level could see price test the June 25th low at 73.275 and then support at 72.875. Holding above 74.125 could see price once again attempt to overcome resistance at 75.625, 76.225 and then the 50 DMA at 76.726.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Friday, July 6th at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.* *
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
www.walshtrading.com
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.