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Soybeans–
Acreage:
3/31: 83.495M
6/30 Est: 83.655M
6/30 Actual: 83.380M
Chng 3/31 – 6/30: -0.115M
Stocks:
6/30/24: 970M
6/30 Est.: 980M
6/30 Actual: 1.008B
Est./Actual Change: 0.038
The Acreage and Stocks reports came out this morning. Soybeans were trading up to 12 cents higher ahead of the report, but after the release came out, they headed lower and closed up just 2-3 cents. The lower acres number was a positive, but soybeans traded lower due to higher stock numbers. The lower acreage number from the USDA leaves the market more vulnerable to a weather premium as we head into July. Now that this report is out of the way, the attention turns back to the weather and yield estimations, and potential trade deals. The grains need some kind of catalyst to get them moving in the right direction. On Friday, the news of the U.S. and China agreeing on a deal to export rare earth minerals could indicate that more trade deals are on the way. The two USDA reports did not provide the kind of volatility the grain markets have seen in previous years.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1024 (-3), high of 1044, low of 1023. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1027 (+2). Cash price is at 1002 (+5)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 271.3 (+0.2) high of 273.5, low of 269.5
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 52.51 (+0.06) high of 53.17, low of 52.34
The July Meal to Oil ratio (52.12% Meal – 47.88% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1029) 5-day, (1049) 20-day, (1052) 50-day, (1047) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1024) 5-day, (1036) 20-day, (1036) 50-day, (1031) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (274) 5-day, (287) 20-day, (292.4) 50-day, (299.5) 100-day, (308.6) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (52.38) 5-day, (50.62) 20-day, (49.80) 50-day, (47.53) 100-day, (45.57) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -35,717 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 23,448 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 25,042 contracts bringing their net short position to -146,800 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 32,861 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -2,999 contracts, moving to a net short position of -110,080 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 3,907 contracts bringing their net short position to -38,728. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 73,920 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed Managed Money traders were net long 44,319 contracts after selling -1,824 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 68,760 contracts.
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 420 (+3), high of 422, low of 415. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 425 (-1.5). Cash price is 440 (+8)
Acreage:
3/31: 95.326M
6/30 Est: 95.350M
6/30 Actual: 95.203M
Change 3/31 – 6/30: -0.147M
Stocks:
6/30/24: 4.993B
6/30 Est.: 4.641B
6/30 Actual: 4.644B
Est./Actual Change: -0.349
Corn did not show the strength that soybeans did leading into the reports, trading mostly unchanged. After the reports came out, corn finished the day down 1 ½ cents. The acreage number did come in lower, but it was not enough to start a rally. The updated corn acreage is the biggest since 2013 and the 3rd most for any year since 1944. Corn stocks came in higher, which is likely the main piece affecting today’s close. For the month of June, Dec corn is down 13 cents.
The March-May time period showed the 3rd-highest usage on record for both corn and soybeans.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (414) 5-day, (430) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (466) 100-day, (461) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (425) 5-day, (436) 20-day, (443) 50-day, (450) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,506 contracts bringing their net position to -182,282 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,113 contracts bringing their net position to -61,180. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -183,120 contracts.
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WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 528 (+4), with a high of 531, low of 523. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 538 (-2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 520 (+5). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 506 (-10). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 529 (+4)
Acreage:
3/31: 45.350M
6/30 Est: 45.438M
6/30 Actual: 45.478M
Change 3/31 – 6/30: +0.128M
Stocks:
6/30/24: 702M
6/30 Est.: 836M
6/30 Actual: 851M
Est./Actual Change: +0.149
Wheat closed lower following the report by 3 ¼. USDA estimates came in higher for both the acreage and the stocks reports. There’s been a pattern of the USDA underestimating the size of domestic wheat crops in recent years. Harvested area for all wheat is projected at 36.636 million acres (ma), compared to 38.469 million last year. The harvest estimates for this year projects 24.83 ma of winter wheat, and 9.745 ma of spring wheat. Last year, wheat harvest numbers came in at 26.103 ma for winter wheat and 10.33 ma for spring wheat. Friday’s COT report showed funds decreasing there net short position by 16k contracts.
The March-May timeframe showed the 5th-lowest usage on record for wheat, indicating a demand problem.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (527) 5-day, (540) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (557) 100-day, (573) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (542) 5-day, (556) 20-day, (552) 50-day, (572) 100-day, (587) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (519) 5-day, (536) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (565) 100-day, (578) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -64,667 contracts, having decreased their short position by 16,686 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -12,361 contracts to bring their net long position to 14,209 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -75,195 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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