The USDA reports are set to be released at 11:00 Chicago time on Wednesday!
Early harvest results for beans in Central and Southern Illinois are positive as some producers are reporting excellent yields………………..Sometimes it takes a couple of reports (October, November, and January’s final figures and sometimes even years later in the census figures) for the reported yields to line up with the government figures…………..and, sometimes the USDA and trade field reports agree immediately…………………..Please, respect the figures and the USDA and understand that we will trade the reported figures regardless, at 11:00:01 on Wednesday .
We will get our first winter wheat seeding report in January 2019 so we will be flying blind until then and will have to rely on trade talk, field reports and seed sales to determine just how many acres are seeded in September, October and very early November………..European prices have remained underpinned given the perceived tightness in old crop stocks and Australia remains dry which may offer some support to the wheat market in the reports…..traders are watching the USDA supply/demand world numbers as stocks/use ratio have been considered tight is recent reports which might keep flat price and spreads susceptible to rallies in spite of spillover weakness which may come from corn and bean harvest pressure……………..
Traders are keeping an eye on the weather forecasts as corn and bean harvest accelerates and the growing season ends with the first frost in the northern hemisphere………..The National Weather Service is suggesting that the northwestern segment of the corn belt might experience cooler than normal conditions in its recent 8 to 14 day forecast………………Weekend rains were welcome in the hard red winter wheat areas in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas and timely for seeding yet, consistent moisture is needed to replenish subsoil deficits……………………..
Trade talk is very two sided as to what the USDA will report on corn yields in Wednesday’s reports………….Those who rely on condition reports are saying that yields should be lower than the August figure and some of those who rely on farmer field reports are seeing a good chance for a higher yield…….
Also, the black swans like swine flu in Asia and potential contagion could, in my opinion offer a cushion to the anticipated harvest pressure which might occur in the next month………….as Rosanne Rosanneadanna (early SNL Gilda Radner character) always said, “It’s always something”!
Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
sbruce@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
[mbullion@walshtrading.com]sbruce@walshtrading.com
[www.walshtrading.com]www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices.PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
