Numbers of 69 to 75% of the corn crop planted in tonight’s report have been heard and this compares with the normal of 95%. So, 92.8 million acres projected as of March 1 might fall very, very short when the USDA issues it’s fresh figures on June 28 and then that figure will be questioned given the planting delays. We might get an acreage tweak in the first surveyed yield report on August 12 and/or a revision on September 12 and then we’ll be into harvest in the South when we get Stocks, Small Grains Summary on Rosh Hashana on September 30. The USDA can surprise us! Plantings, pollinating and enjoying a full growing season will be bantered about over the next few months in the corn market. End users might be ecstatic if we get a break of twenty cents as we approach first notice day of the July contract on June 30 and increase coverage through the Fall.
The dynamics in the wheat market are many. Quality is becoming an issue in hard red territory and, depending on the extent of quality loss, looks like it will be competing with feed grains this Summer and Fall. Soft red east of the Mississippi hasn’t been hurt as much as the hard red crop and the issue of Chicago being unnaturally above Kansas City may be resolved this Summer and Fall. Lots to consider as the “unwheat” vomitoxin tainted stocks in the East may be considered as a feed alternative to the Southeastern poultry sector given the problems with corn. Lots of plates are spinning! Spreads may firm if quality gets poor and millers start paying up with the basis for quality. Of course, this may negate the poultry demand and we might see some basis levels and discounts we’ve never experienced. It would be nice if we traded a milling quality contract!!!!
Beans are still the redheaded stepchild. Yields may suffer given the late planting yet the trade anticipates many more acres. The Chinese tariffs and the Argentine port strike might negate one another but the cash market will work out the logistics quickly! Necessity might make for temporary blindness and adaptations. There’s gambling at Rick’s? Spreads could slowly widen as we approach first notice day as the world still has enough beans!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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