SOYBEANS –
Soybeans recovered some today, after falling 14 cents on higher open interest yesterday and falling 5 cents in overnight trading. Yesterday’s open interest rose 8000 contracts showing that new short positions were opened. On the latest COT report, commercials were short -34k soybean contracts, which is their third highest short position of the year.
While no official trade deals have been announced, the USDA did say that they have reached several agreements to expand the reach of domestic Ag products. Any new developments from the USDA could help soybeans make a move as they approach a 2-week low.
Weather outlook leans bearish at this time.
Looking at technicals, support is at 1044, resistance is 1067.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1051 (+3), high of 1055, low of 1040. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1037 (-0-2). Cash price is at 1034 (-14)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 296.4 (+2.7) high of 297, low of 292.5
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 48.39 (-0.54) high of 49.39, low of 47.71
The July Meal to Oil ratio (55.06% Meal – 44.94% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1058) 5-day, (1055) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1050) 100-day, (1046) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1046) 5-day, (1039) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (296.2) 5-day, (294.7) 20-day, (298.1) 50-day, (306.2) 100-day, (312.3) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (49.07) 5-day, (49.33) 20-day, (47.74) 50-day, (46.46) 100-day, (44.62) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -25,753 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 12,654 contracts. CIT traders were net long 157,869 contracts after increasing their already long position by 6,032 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -18,873 contracts, having increased their short position by -27,822 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 31,510.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -4,721 contracts, moving to a net short position of -107,466 contracts. CIT traders were net long 76,190 contracts after decreasing their long position by -1,955 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short 90,785 contracts after increasing their long position by 4,511 contracts. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 64,844 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed Managed Money traders were net long 57,309 contracts after selling -10,123 contracts. CIT traders were net long 138,397 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders net sold -6,751 contracts, to a net with a total of -97,536 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 71,573 contracts.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 447 (-4), high of 453, low of 443. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 441 (-2). Cash price is 457 (-8)
Corn was lower overnight as Brazil raised their production estimate. June trading will be impacted by the result of Brazil’s corn harvest. LSEG lowered their Argentine corn estimate slight because of recent flooding in growing areas.
Looking at seasonal trends, taking a short position in December corn on June 10th and selling June 29th was profitable the last 13 out of the last 15 years.
Corn is at 68% good/excellent, which is the lowest initial crop conditions rating in six years. North Carolina leads the way at 83% good/excellent followed by Iowa, Ohio had the lowest crop rating at 41% good/excellent. Ohio is 37% off it’s 3-year average, Iowa is 4% above its 3-year average.
Corn exports for the week ending May 22 were 1.396 mmt. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are 46.9 mmt which is 29.1% above last year. Exports are 71.1% of the USDA’s forecast compared to the five-year average of 64.6%. Top buyers were Japan, Mexico, and Columbia. Exports this morning were 104k mt to Mexico and 101 mt to unknown.
Support 444, Resistance 457, 468 in July corn.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (456) 5-day, (453) 20-day, (467) 50-day, (478) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (447) 5-day, (444) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed that corn Managed Money traders reduced their position by -18,234, bringing their net short to -103,210 contracts. CIT traders decreased their net long position by -19,329 contracts to a long position of 313,094 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders sold -3,408 contracts, to a net short position of -189,799 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -97,678.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 534 (+3), with a high of 534, low of 527. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 548 (+3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 530 (+1). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 531 (+6). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 615 (+12)
July wheat futures are sitting at support after closing a few cents higher today, although wheat closed below the 50-day moving average for the fifth straight day.
HRS conditions are at 45% good/excellent, well below expectations. HRS wheat ratings are tied with 2021 as the second lowest of the last 40 years, with 1988 being the worst year. In 1988 and 2021 yields were cut heavily due to drought. At current pace, HRS wheat plantings are set for a 55-year low.
Wheat export inspections for the week ending May 22 were 560k mt. Inspections for the year are at 21 mmt which is 16% above last year. Exports are at 95.3% of the USDA’s forecast compared to the five-year average at 92.1%. Top buyers were South Korea, Indonesia, and Venezuela.
July Chicago wheat support is at 525, 531, resistance is at 536, 548.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (536) 5-day, (532) 20-day, (544) 50-day, (563) 100-day, (579) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (551) 5-day, (546) 20-day, (559) 50-day, (578) 100-day, (592) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (532) 5-day, (528) 20-day, (553) 50-day, (575) 100-day, (584) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (604) 5-day, (596) 20-day, (604) 50-day, (615) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -80,162 contracts, having decreased their short position by 18,002 contracts. Wheat CIT traders reached a long position of 39,071 contracts, increasing their long position by 2,055 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -99,289 contracts after net buying 16,24- contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -105,792.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com