For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, April 01, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
June Lean Hogs opened lower and ticked to the session high at 96.30 and then turned south, heading to the low of the day at 94.20. It consolidated through late morning and then turned higher, almost trading to the high of the day and it settled near the high at 96.175. The breakdown took price to a new low for the week and a potential break away from the consolidation band hogs have been trading in. The move higher put price back into the consolidation band it has been trading in, establishing a new low for the band at Thursday’s low. The band high is at 98.625. The breakdown and rally were about impending tariffs, a weak cutout and the impending Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report due out after the close, in my opinion. The estimates in my opinion, were for a potentially bearish report with average expectations mostly above 100%. The report in my opinion looks bullish for Hogs as the actual numbers came in below 100% for most of the categories and under the guesstimates analysts put forth. Exports were above 31,000 tons which is a positive sign after last report’s weak number, but that didn’t help the early trade. It was the pre-report jitters that helped the market get back on its feet as traders lightened positions as the day wore on. The cutout remains erratic and is starting to work lower. We should have an upcoming seasonal buy as we enter the final stages of the Easter holiday buying and the summer grilling season and its strong potential. The problem is we have a potential trade issue looming with the President’s tariff program and we have to see how the market behaves in response to any announcements and retaliatory moves between the trading partners. So, it looks like uncertainty will prevail and the market will react to the various news items accordingly. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at 95.30. A breakdown from here could see price test support at 93.50. If price can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 97.30. Resistance then comes in at 98.475.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 96.70 as of 03/26/2025.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 89.13 as of 03/25/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 489,000, which is above last week’s 465,000 and last year’s 488,046. The estimated total for the week is 1,939,000, which is above last week’s 1,798,000 and last year’s 1,938,282.
United States Hog Inventory Down Slightly
United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2025 was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from March 1, 2024, and down 1 percent from December 1, 2024.
Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter.
Market hog inventory, at 68.5 million head, was down slightly from last year, and down 1 percent from last quarter.
The December 2024-February 2025 pig crop, at 33.7 million head, was down slightly from last year.
Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.89 million head, down 1 percent from previous year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd.
The average pigs saved per litter was 11.65 for the December 2024-February 2025 period, compared to 11.53 last year.
United States hog producers intend to have 2.91 million sows farrow during the March-May 2025 quarter, down slightly from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 1 percent from the same period two years earlier.
Intended farrowings for June-August 2025, at 2.96 million sows, are down 1 percent from the same period one year earlier, and down 2 percent from the same period two years earlier.
The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 52 percent of the total United States hog inventory, unchanged from the previous year.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
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