For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, November 19, 2024, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
February Lean Hogs is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the December contract. It opened unchanged and rallied to the session high at 83.85. It turned lower and traded down to the low at 82.875. It consolidated and settled at 83.275. It was a neutral session for the new lead contract, forming a Doji candlestick and also trading inside the previous day’s trading range on the February chart. The price action revolved around the key level at 83.325 with settlement just below it. The market was held in check, in my opinion by the lackluster morning pork cutout, down 8 cents from Friday with a low load count. The Lean Hog Index is also under some pressure, moving lower the past two days. Slaughter is up a little on Monday from last week and last year but, it is too early to tell whether slaughter numbers will surpass last year for the week. You have to be wary of the slaughter as we have seen slaughter numbers over the past month not jiving with the USDA’s numbers on the last Hogs and Pigs report. The Us Dollar continues to be strong and you have to wonder what effects this development will have on our exports. Traders are still looking at the seasonality of higher slaughter and lower prices but you have to like if you are bullish the strength we have seen in the cash markets over the past few weeks. We’ll see!… If price breaks down from settlement, it could test support at 81.70. Support then comes in at the rising 21-DMA now at 81.325 and then 80.45. If price can get above 83.325, it could test resistance at 85.325.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 97.50 as of 11/15/2024.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 89.27 as of 11/14/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 489,000, which is above last week’s 458,000 and last year’s 486,404.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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