December Lean Hogs made another new low since taking over as the lead contract. It opened lower and traded down to the low of the day at 71.625. Price rebounded sharply, trading to the session high at 73.10 and then it consolidated in the middle of the range the rest of the session. It settled at 72.525. It was the narrowest range in the past 4 sessions and it formed a spinning top candlestick formation. This indicates indecision in my opinion, making the new low and then coming back like it did. The cash market remains choppy as the indices are leaking lower, but the one-day cutout on Monday is higher. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report comes out on Thursday, so futures could drift around support and resistance until then. The price action took price just below support at 71.85 and just above resistance at 72.80. It settled near resistance. A rally past the high could see price test resistance at 74.25. If Hogs break down below settlement, we could re-test the 71.85 support level. Support then comes in at 71.325 and then 69.90.
The Pork Cutout Index dipped and is at 99.43 as of 9/22/2023.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 87.08 as of 9/21/2023.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 469,000, which is below last week’s 485,000 and last year’s 484,000.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, September 28, 2023, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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