For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, January 14, 2024, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
February Lean Hogs opened higher and made the session low at 82.425. The open and low was a test of the 21-DMA now at 82.775 after a strong rally led price higher after making the low for the move on January 8th at 78.45. Traders took price past resistance at 83.325 and the 50-DMA now at 83.625 to the high at 83.80 where it stalled and price traded lower into the close to settle at 83.175. Once again, the rally was the result of a strong morning cutout which gives the impression of a strengthening cash market. The cutout couldn’t hold onto its morning gains, ending the session in negative territory which could hinder futures on the Tuesday open. The cash hog market index is expected to be higher on Tuesday so it will be interesting to see where traders take price. The US Dollar has been strong which along with the holiday season has tempered our strong exports. It has been making new highs so exports could struggle as we move forward into the new year. It may be left to the US consumer to accelerate demand and it may be possible with beef cutouts making new highs. It will depend on the retail industry and whether they keep pork prices at affordable levels to move pork instead of beef. The 50-DMA is usually strong support/ resistance (depending on where it is on the chart) so a weak open could send price lower to re-test the 21-DMA and then support down at 81.70. A breakout above the 50-DMA could see price move towards resistance at 85.325. We’ll see!…
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 89.57 as of 01/10/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 80.43 as of 01/09/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 486,000, which is above last week’s 447,000 and last year’s 370,573.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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