Hogs Rally

Ben DiCostanzoGeneral Commentary

December Lean Hogs continued its recovery on Thursday, opening higher and working lower to the low at 67.425 and then reversing direction and rallying the rest of the session to the high at 68.70. It settled near the high at 68.625.  The rally stalled at just under resistance at 68.75, but it broke out above resistance at 67.80 and settled above the declining 13-DMA now at 68.30. The market had become technically oversold in my opinion, making the low on October 20th at 65.40 and trading at a steeper than normal discount to the cash index, which likely helped provide some support and some profit taking, in my opinion. Hogs still have hurdles to jump over as it couldn’t pierce resistance today. The cutouts and cash market still can’t generate much positive price action but, it is hoped to be stabilizing and expectations are hams will be in strong demand into the holiday season as turkey stocks are at their lowest ending September total since around 2006. Ham stocks are also in short supply so, we could see a bidding war develop among grocers as we get into the holiday season. We’ll See…. If Hogs rally past 68.75, we could test resistance at the declining 21-DMA now at 69.575 and then resistance at 69.90. A breakdown below the 13-DMA could see price test support at 67.80. The 8-DMA is nearby at 67.25.

The Pork Cutout Index down ticked and is at 87.50 as of 10/25/2023.

The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 78.41 as of 10/24/2023.

Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 486,000, which is above last week’s 483,000 and below last year’s 492,000. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 1,941,000, which is above last week’s 1,924,000 and below last year’s 1,951,000.

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be on Tuesday, October 31, 2023, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163


Fax: 312.256.0109



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