For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, January 07, 2024, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
Sign Up Now February Lean Hogs continued to sink into the abyss, making another new low for the down move at 79.325 and settling near low at 79.65. It had opened lower, made a small attempt to rally, trading to the high at 81.125then fell to the low before drifting the rest of the session to the close. The cash market continues its downward turn and the morning cutout which had tried to show some firmness on prior days caved and was in negative territory keeping the wheels churning to the downside. I think the consolidation during the last half of the day was hope we would see a bounce in the cutout in the afternoon. That didn’t happen with the afternoon cutout down another 14 cents which could put even more pressure on the futures in the morning. Don’t forget we are in the middle of a Head-N-Shoulders top formation breakdown which has a potential measured move price objective down to 75.75. The Dollar remains strong, which could continue to hurt exports and while pork cutouts are moving lower the beef cutout continues to show strength and has been making highs as opposed to lows for the pork cutout. People are speaking their taste preferences and a cheaper pork price hasn’t been able to change peoples’ preferences. There have been repeated calls in some circles to find ways to add flavor to pork products to be enable a better competition between the two premium meat products. Maybe those calls need to be heeded if the pork cutout is to catch up to the beef cutout. We’ll see!… If price can’t hold settlement, it could re-test support at 79.80. Support then comes in at 78.80. If price can hold settlement, it could revisit resistance at 80.45 and the nearby rising 100-DMA now at 80.65. Resistance then comes in at 81.70.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 91.69 as of 01/03/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 83.12 as of 01/02/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 447,000, which is below last week’s 481,000 and last year’s 468,922.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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