For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, April 08, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
June Lean Hogs gap opened lower and traded to an early low before rumors of delayed tariffs hit the airwaves, turning the market higher. The price action, in my opinion, was under the influence of the Equity markets and the whipsaw action taking place there as tariff fear and false hope dominated early trade. Hogs rallied to the high at 92.65 and then failed as the delayed tariff rumors were denied, sending price to the session low at 88.70. The rally closed the gap, and the low was a new low for the down move in Hogs. The market was able to bounce off the low and settled at 90.05. The price action going forward will likely continue to follow the outside market movement as tariff rumors and actual news will drive sentiment for either taking on risk or avoiding risk and continued liquidation. If the outside markets can settle down and get comfortable with the tariff idea, we would need improvement in the hog cash markets as the cutout continues to flop around and is in a range from 93.70 to 97.27 over the past week and more. This has seen the index break down and, in my opinion, need to break par and stay there to get the cash trade higher. This would help stabilize futures as we go forward. We’ll see!… The breakdown took price below support at the 90.40 level and the rising 50-DMA now at 90.275. It stopped just above the key level at 88.325. The rally stalled just above resistance at 92.375 and the rising 21-DMA now at 92.175. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 88.325 and then 87.10. The rising 100-DMA now at 87.15, will lend even more power to the 87.10 support level in my opinion. If price can retake the 90.40 resistance and the rising 50-DMA, it could re-test resistance at 92.375. Resistance then comes in at 93.50.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 95.19 as of 04/04/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 88.36 as of 04/03/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 488,000, which is above last week’s 464,000 and last year’s 66,382.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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