For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, October 29, 2024, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
December Lean Hogs opened lower and rallied to a new high for the up move at 80.30, then came tumbling down to the session low at 78.425. It drifted the rest of the session to settle near the low at 78.65. The early rally stopped just short of resistance at 80.45 and the low and settlement punched through support at 78.80. The price action formed an outside candle down as we closed lower and near the low on the day. It looked like there was some profit taking on Thursday after reaching the new peak. Hogs have had a good run as the seasonals haven’t come into play so far with the cutouts and cash prices going higher and slaughter running behind a year ago. However, the seasonals could jump to the forefront this week as slaughter is ahead of last years pace as we head into Friday. Exports were disappointing as we saw a lot of cancellations in this week’s report. I don’t know if these were reporting errors from the past reports or the importer decided they didn’t need the product. If price breaks down from settlement, it could test support at the rising 8-DMA now at 78.025. Support is close by at 77.80 and then the 50-DMA now at 77.75. A breakdown from here has support at rising 21-DMA now at 76.60. If price re-takes resistance at 78.80, it could test resistance at 79.80. The Thursday high is next and then 80.45.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 97.34 as of 10/23/2024.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 84.66 as of 10/22/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 487,000, which is above last week’s 486,000 and last year’s 482,385. The estimated slaughter for the week is 1,952,000, which is above last week’s 1,932,000 and last year’s 1,937,858.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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