July Lean Hogs is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the June contract. It opened a tick higher and traded to the session low at 95.875. It turned higher and rallied to the high by late morning at 97.525. It drifted into the close and settled at 96.95. The initial breakdown took price near the recent low of the June contract at 95.75 when it was the lead contract and then bounced. The rally stalled just above resistance at 97.30 and settled below it, keeping bears in control of the market in my opinion. The cutout has stabilized and could be finding its footing. This could lead to a recovery in the cash index and support futures. In my opinion, it is important for the cash market to lead the way because it hasn’t been able to break out of its trading range. This has led traders to be cautious and skeptical that cash can sustain rallies. This has caused futures to lose its rich premium to the index. A failure from the low could send price down to test support at 95.30. If price can recover and get above 97.30, we could test resistance at 98.475.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 100.79 as of 05/29/2024.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 90.79 as of 05/28/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 487,000, which is above last week’s 480,000 and last year’s 477,718. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,447,000, which is below last week’s 1,912,000 and above last year’s 1,435,113.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, June 04, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
tested support at the
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