For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, September 30, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
December Lean Hogs opened higher, traded to the high at 91.45 and then broke down to the low of the day at 90.275. It consolidated and closed near the low at 90.35. The rally took price near resistance at the declining 13-DMA now at 91.575. The breakdown took price just past support at 90.40. The Monday range formed both an Inside Candlestick and a Bearish Engulfing candlestick. This is after a bullish(in my opinion) Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. The report took price higher on Friday but it wasn’t an impressive rally after a strong open that took price to a new contract high for the December contract, the market’s movement was tepid at best. The report showed less supply for last quarter and a surprising decline in breeding intentions. This potentially sets up a tightening supply situation going into 2026. The cash market continues to impress as prices remain elevated when compared to last year. However, all of this has led to a Bearish Engulfing candle after making the all-time high for the contract. It is surprising to see that but with a strong long position in the market maybe the bullishness has already priced in and as we go into month end quarter end on Tuesday, we could see some profit taking. We’ll see!… If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at the declining 13-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 92.375. A failure from settlement could see price test support at the rising 8-DMA now at 89.10. Support then comes in at 88.325.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 112.43 as of 09/26/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 104.83 as of 09/25/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 490,000, which is even with last week and above last year’s 486,158.
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Senior Livestock Analyst
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