December Lean Hogs opened lower, traded down to the low of the day at 75.025, and then raced higher to the high at 76.80. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled at 76.40. The early breakdown took price below support at 76.175, 75.60 and the declining 13-DMA now at 75.175. The rally stopped at Wednesday’s high and was just above resistance at the declining 21-DMA now at 76.775. The candle formed a tweezer top with the two candles at the same high. This is a potentially bearish formation as it is coming at the high for the up move. The cash market is stable, staying in place as high production is being met with stronger demand than expected keeping the indices in a tight range at the lows of its recent trading range. I am hearing this is National Pork Month and there are expectations that grocers will feature pork more aggressively during this period. This could keep futures stable as slaughter has been lower than expected and weights are high but not soaring leading many to believe producers are current and cutouts and cash could inch higher as a result. Exports were excellent after a disappointing number at the last report. Exports are important for the pork industry. The issue exporters now face is the port strike and whether it will have a material affect on our shipments. If price breaks down from settlement, it could test support at the 13-DMA. A breakdown from here could see support tested at 74.25. Support then comes in at 72.80. If price takes out the Tweezer Top, we could test resistance at the 50-DMA now at 77.175. Resistance is next at 77.80 and then 78.80.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 94.48 as of 09/27/2024.
The Lean Hog Index ticked lower and is at 84.03 as of 09/26/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 481,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 483,176. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 1,938,000, which is above last week’s 1,933,000 and below last year’s 1,938,287.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, October 08, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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