For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 25, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
June Lean Hogs opened higher and made the high of the day at 97.675. The open saw price open above the key level at 97.30 but bulls couldn’t gain control of the price action as futures collapsed and traded down to the session low at 94.50. The breakdown pressured support at 95.30 and it was able to stabilize the market as price turned higher and retraced more than half of the decline before pulling back at the end of the session to settle at 95.80. The breakdown took back Friday’s gains but further established that Hogs are consolidating between the previously mentioned support and resistance levels. It has traded above and below these levels in the short period it has been the lead contract with Friday’s high at 98.625 and today’s low at 94.50 but the bulk of the action has been within the range. The cash market continues to linger with the cutout trading between 95 and 100 and the cash index working lower and breaking down below the 89.00 level. Demand must be weakening for pork at the retail level as slaughter levels remain below last year’s levels and the retail industry hasn’t been aggressive in purchasing pork. We are entering the Easter ham buying season so we have to hope the retailers get aggressive in buying hams for their Easter sales promotions. Exports are up in the air as last week’s report showed Mexico pulling back on their purchases and we have to hope that this week is better and forestalls a possible lower trend starting. We need exports to be strong as they have made up a good portion of hog production historically. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at 95.30. A breakdown from here could see price test support at 93.50. If price can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 97.30. Resistance then comes in at 98.475.
The Pork Cutout Index down ticked and is at 96.28 as of 03/21/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 88.88 as of 03/20/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 488,000, which is above last week’s 487,000 and last year’s 483,350.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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