August Lean Hogs opened higher and rallied to the session high at 89.80. The rally took price through the declining 21-DMA now at 89.40 but it was unable to stay above it. It broke down and traded to the session low at 88.075 and settled near the low at 88.425. The breakdown took price below support at 88.325 with settlement just above it. The session formed a shooting star candlestick keeping the bears in control of the market in my opinion. Once again, the cash market has been weak and unable to assert itself to the upside and that keeps the downward pressure on the futures market. The market tried to rally and pull a fast one over the gap close. Remember the 80/ 20 rule that when a gap is closed it will usually reverse course in the direction of the gap. It didn’t hold and a breakdown below the Monday low could see price test support at 87.10. This would threaten the bullish piercing candlestick pattern established on July 11th. The market will have to take out the low from that day at 83.675 but continued cash weakness could further embolden bearish traders and take out that low. We’ll see!… If settlement holds, we could revisit the declining 21-DMA and the Monday high could come into play again.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 95.51 as of 07/12/2024.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 88.38 as of 07/11/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 478,000, which is above last week’s 462,000 and last year’s 449,675.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, July 16, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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