For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 04, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
April Lean Hogs opened higher and rallied to the high of the day at 85.55. The rally took price to just above resistance at 85.325 where it failed and then proceeded to breakdown the rest of the session to the low at 83.60. It settled near the low at 83.675. Hogs continued to feel the pain of the tariff situation, unable to sustain the early strength in the Hogs as early short covering took place for a brief time. Going into the weekend, the uncertainty involved with the tariffs took precedence over short-covering into the weekend. The cash market is behaving erratically as cutouts are up one day and down the next but as the cutouts dip the volume picks up indicating demand for pork is still there. It is the tariff situation that is roiling the markets. Will our trading partners put forth retaliatory tariffs creating more rift and potential tariff increases from the President? Will they forgo buying US pork in favor of Brazil to try and go after the US in a different manner? No retaliatory tariffs but a determination to get pork producers on their side by going after them economically. Slaughter levels continue to be below the prior year. It is the 6th straight week where slaughter was below the prior year. This could keep the upward pressure on price as we continue to move towards the Easter Holiday and then the grilling season. But it is the tariff issue that rules for the moment, and until we see how the big three (Mexico, Canada and China) respond, uncertainty will dominate the market. We’ll see!… The breakdown took price down to the 100 and 200-DMAs now at 84.375 and 84.20 respectively. Price needs to retake these levels or we have the potential for further declines. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 83.25 and then trendline support is next at 82.70. Support then comes in at 81.70. If price can retake the long-term moving averages, we could see a re-test of resistance at 85.325. A breakout from here could see price approach resistance at the 50-DMA now at 86.60.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is 97.55 as of 02/27/2025.
The Lean Hog Index ticked lower and is at 89.39 as of 02/26/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 480,000, which is above last week’s 467,000 and below last year’s 481,744. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 100,000, which is below last week’s 125,000 and last year’s 112,823. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,538,000, which is above last week’s 2,522,000 and below last year’s 2,550,467.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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