For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, May 05, 2026, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
June Lean Hogs opened higher and traded to the high at 101.95. It reversed course and broke down the rest of the session to the low at 99.675. Settlement was just above the low at 99.75. The open saw price test resistance at 101.975 and fail. The breakdown took price below support at the rising 50-DMA now at 100.775 and the key level at 100.075. It looks like long positions continued to get liquidated as cutout prices and the cash market remain listless. You now also have disease worries taking hold as the pseudorabies virus was detected in a small commercial swine facility in Iowa. This was traced back to an outdoor herd in Texas. This virus was eradicated in 2004 according to officials in commercial herds but it has persisted in wild populations which leaves the possibility of domestic contamination because of potential contact if hogs are raised outdoors. These infected hogs were raised outdoors so contact with wild hogs is possible. Efforts are now ongoing to get control of the situation as we must now inform trading partners of the situation though the government says they do not expect any serious disruptions to trade. Officials state the virus has not been detected beyond the original caseload and protocols have been put in place to make sure the disease doesn’t spread. Officials said this disease does not affect humans but can pressure hog production. US pork production remains strong which could be influencing cutout and cash weakness even as demand for pork is healthy. This infection could hinder exports if our trade partners feel we don’t have the situation under control however, which is probably why we saw some more weakness in futures prices as traders always seem to assume the worst and sell any positions until they are positive the negative aspects are limited. With grilling season starting, this could limit the enthusiasm until traders are sure we have the situation under control. We’ll see!… A failure from the low could see price test support at 98.475Support then comes in at 97.30. If price can recover and retake resistance at 100.075, it could test resistance at the rising 50-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 101.975.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 97.79 as of 05/01/2026.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 91.30 as of 04/30/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 490,000, which is above last week’s 484,000 and last year’s 480,882.
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