Hogs Break Down

Ben DiCostanzoGeneral Commentary

June Lean Hogs opened lower at 106.80 which turned out to be the high of the day. It broke down to the low at 104.375 and then consolidated the rest of the session to settle near the low at 105.00. The breakdown took price to just above support at 104.35. Settlement was above support keeping the upper hand with bullish traders. Slaughter numbers are higher than expected which may be putting pressure on the cutouts and allowing packers to step back and let producers come to their price levels. Exports remain in good shape but the cold storage report showed supplies were high er than the previous month but below last year. The increase over last year may have dampened spirits as the belly was also in the same mixture surprising some in the trade. If price can hold settlement, we could test resistance at 106.85. Resistance then comes in at 107.925. A failure from support at 104.35 could see price move lower and test support at 101.975.

The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 99.11 as of 04/24/2024.

The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 91.64 as of 04/23/2024.

Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 485,000, which is below last week’s 486,000 and above last year’s 475,664. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,936,000, which is below last week’s 1,940,000 and above last year’s 1,882,730.

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, April 30, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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