Grinding

The harvest grind in corn and beans is upon us and might be fast and furious or slow and sputtering  depending upon what Mother Nature decides……………………………

Last night’s progress reports revealed that corn and bean harvest is a little ahead of normal and winter wheat seeding just slightly behind the 5 year average………………………………………………….

I sense that no one wants to sell down at these price levels yet, as harvest progresses, there  might be forced selling as space is anticipated to be tight which could keep pressure on the basis and on spreads……………………………

End users are logically happier to be participating in a bear market by rewarding new lows by taking coverage and doing it again each and every day until they can’t take it anymore………………………………………………………………

Speculators may be tempted to pick bottoms anticipating trade pacts and agreements ahead of the mid- term elections………………………………….

Some might just be selling volatility as we are in that twilight zone of being too cheap to sell and no reason to buy………………………………………………………..

Some might be standing aside and monitoring the markets awaiting opportunities to fade  over reactions to weather and news………………………………

Are we returning to a period of responsible and moderate monetary policy or ready to go back to a pumping dollars with a  quantitative easing policy if the economy shows any signs of slowing???…………………………

Will Washington ever learn to just let the markets work it out………………………………….Or do they love the power of controlling a centralized economy??………………………….

Lots to ponder in the next few weeks when harvest  weather , the midterm elections and trade pacts and tariffs might be the focus of the trade……………………….

Things can change swiftly and wheat may be the first grain to rally if we continue to see production issues in Australia and planting/seeding concerns in the Black Sea or, heaven forbid, the USA!

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Steve Bruce

Walsh Trading
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