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Soybeans–
The July WASDE report came out this morning. Yield was unchanged at 52.5 bpa. Total production is now estimated at 4.34 bb. The June 30th Acreage report had planted area at 83.4 mb. New crop ending stocks were raised 15 mb above the June estimate to 310 mb. The stocks/use for new crop soybeans is now 7.1%, up 0.4% over June’s estimate. The average farm price for soybeans is now projected at $10.10 per bushel, compared to $10.25 in June. New crop exports are estimated lower at 1.745 bb.
Old crop ending stocks were left unchanged.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1004 (-8), high of 1016, low of 999. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1007 (-6). Cash price is at 996 (+5)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 270.3 (-1.1) high of 272.9, low of 268.2
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.75 (+0.26) high of 54.19, low of 53.10
The August Meal to Oil ratio (50.14% Meal – 49.86% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1015) 5-day, (1042) 20-day, (1046) 50-day, (1040) 100-day, (1042) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1013) 5-day, (1035) 20-day, (1035) 50-day, (1029) 100-day, (1031) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (270.8) 5-day, (280.4) 20-day, (291.2) 50-day, (298.6) 100-day, (307.8) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (53.72) 5-day, (53.28) 20-day, (50.59) 50-day, (48.14) 100-day, (46.09) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 1st showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -23,023 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 425 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,209 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,591 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 2,771 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed meal Managed Money traders sold -21,858 contracts, moving to a net short position of -131,938 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,331 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,397. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -87,896 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 39,411 contracts after selling -4,908 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 63,772 contracts.
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CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 396 (-4), high of 418, low of 411. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 412 1/4 (+1). Cash price is 427 (unchanged)
New crop ending stocks were 1.66 billion bushels (bb), less than the trade expectation at 1.722 bb. The stocks/use ratio is now 10.8%, which is a reduction of half a percent from last month’s report.
Old crop ending stocks were reduced to 1.34 bb compared to the trade estimate at 1.352 bb and the June estimate at 1.365 bb. As mentioned in my article on Wednesday, exports were raised by 100 million bushels (mb). Feed and residual use was cut 75 mb based on indicated disappearance in the June 30th Grain Stocks report. Old crop stocks/use is 8.75%.
Global new crop ending stocks were also reported less than expected at 272.1 million metric tons (mmt), which is 3.1 mmt less than June. The trade estimate for global ending stocks prior to the report was 276.8 mmt. Old crop ending stocks saw a slight reduction from June at 285 mmt to 284.2 mmt.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (399) 5-day, (412) 20-day, (423) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (415) 5-day, (428) 20-day, (437) 50-day, (446) 100-day, (447) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that corn Managed Money sold -24,181 contracts bringing their net position to -206,463 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 34,649 contracts bringing their net position to -26,531. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -214,077 contracts.
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WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 545 (-9), with a high of 557, low of 544. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 565 (-9). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 532 (+7). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 524(-10).
The wheat national average yield was raised to 52.6 bpa, up from 51.6 bpa last month. All-wheat production for 2025/26 came in at 1.929 bb, 14 mb higher than the trade estimate. Winter wheat production was estimated at 1.345 bb, while spring wheat was estimated at 504 mb by the USDA. New crop ending stocks are now estimated at 890 mb compared to 898 mb in June and 851 mb in 2024/25. The average farm price for wheat is now $5.40 per bushel, down from $5.52 in the prior marketing year and unchanged from June.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (548) 5-day, (554) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (566) 100-day, (584) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (569) 5-day, (576) 20-day, (573) 50-day, (588) 100-day, (603) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -63,071 contracts, having decreased their short position by 1,596 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,579 contracts to bring their net long position to 10,630 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -76,571 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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