Tim Healy 9/17/2026
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Corn Dec ’26 (ZCZ26)
Medium- to Long-Term Trend: Strongly Bullish
Price sits well above the major moving averages:
This confirms a sustained uptrend that began earlier in the year. The large positive price changes versus the longer MAs indicates strong accumulation.
Short-Term Trend: Corrective / Pullback
Price has fallen below both the 5-day MA (532-2) and the 20-day MA (530-7).
Short-term ADX remains elevated (9-day ADX 45.14, 14-day 42.21), showing the prior up-move still has momentum, but the immediate direction has flipped lower.
Higher-timeframe uptrend remains intact. The market is in a healthy pullback within that uptrend rather than a trend reversal.
Momentum & Oscillator Analysis
| Indicator | Reading | Interpretation |
| Stochastic (9/14) | %K 36–40, Raw Stoch very low | Short-term oversold |
| Stochastic (20+) | Still elevated (70–86) | Longer-term momentum still positive |
| RSI (all periods) | 50–59 | Neutral – neither overbought nor oversold |
| ADX + DI | Short-term ADX strong + +DI dominant; longer ADX weak | Short-term trend power fading; longer-term trend mature |
Short-term oscillators are washing out the recent excess, which is constructive for the larger uptrend. ATR is moderately volatile and contracting slightly on longer lookbacks (9-day ATR 11-3 → 100-day 8-4). Historic volatility rises with time frame (≈12% short-term → ≈21% on 50/100-day), typical after a strong directional move.
Key Support & Resistance Levels Resistance
Immediate: 530-7 to 532-2 (20-day & 5-day MAs) – first barrier on any bounce.
Next psychological / prior-swing area would be the recent highs (not shown on this table, but above 532).
Support Near-term: 520–525 zone (common retracement area in grain markets during pullbacks).
Stronger: 495-5 (50-day MA) – major support and the level that would need to break to question the medium-term uptrend.
Deeper: 482-0 (100-day) and 475-3 / 476-6 (200-day & YTD average).
Corn Dec ’26 remains in a strong medium-term uptrend but is undergoing a short-term corrective pullback. Momentum has cooled (price below 5- and 20-day MAs, short stochastics oversold), which is normal after the sharp advance from the 50-day MA area. Bullish scenario: Hold above the 50-day MA (≈495-5) and reclaim the 20-day MA (530-7).
Bearish scenario: Sustained break below the 50-day MA would signal a deeper correction or potential trend change. The current setup favors buyers looking for entries on dips toward the 50-day MA rather than chasing strength at current levels.
Soybean Nov ’26 (ZSX26)
Medium- to Long-Term Trend: Strongly Bullish
Price remains well above all major moving averages with solid gains:
| Moving Average | Level | Distance from Price | % Change |
| 5-Day | 1311-2 | Slightly above | −1.22% |
| 20-Day | 1290-6 | Above | +6.36% |
| 50-Day | 1236-6 | Well above | +10.38% |
| 100-Day | 1202-4 | Strongly above | +13.87% |
| 200-Day | 1157-7 | Strongly above | +16.61% |
| Year-to-Date | 1166-2 | Strongly above | +23.63% |
The market is in a clear intermediate and long-term uptrend. The largest relative strength is versus the longer-term averages (100-day, 200-day, and YTD).
Short-Term Trend: Mild Pullback / Consolidation
- Price has slipped just below the 5-day MA (1311-2).
- Still comfortably above the 20-day MA (1290-6).
- This is a shallow, orderly correction rather than a sharp reversal.
| Period | Stochastic Condition | RSI | Interpretation |
| 9-Day | Neutral (Raw 55%, %K 62%) | 61.3 | Healthy, not overbought |
| 14-Day | Moderately bullish | 63.3 | Positive momentum |
| 20-Day | Bullish (Raw 84%, %K 86%) | 63.5 | Still strong |
| 50/100-Day | Strongly bullish | ~59–61 | Longer-term momentum intact |
Short-term oscillators are in neutral-to-bullish territory and far from oversold. This suggests the current dip is mild and the broader uptrend momentum has not been damaged.3. Trend Strength (ADX / Directional Indicators)
- 9-Day ADX: 46.66 (very strong) with +DI (25.60) significantly above −DI (8.87)
- 14-Day ADX: 37.53 (strong) — +DI still dominant
- 20-Day ADX: 28.23 (moderate-strong)
- Longer-term ADX drops to 13.20 (50-day) and 8.76 (100-day)
The short-term trend remains powerful and bullish. The longer-term ADX readings indicate the major advance has matured, which is normal after a sustained rally.
4. Volatility
- ATR is moderate: ~1.6–1.75% on short-term periods, declining to ~1.25% on the 100-day.
- Historic volatility sits in the 17–19% range — typical for soybeans and lower than wheat’s current readings.
5. Key Support & Resistance Levels Resistance
- Immediate: 1316–1320 area (recent pivot)
- Stronger: Recent swing highs near 1335
Support
- Near-term: 1311-2 (5-day MA) → 1290-6 (20-day MA)
- Major: 1236-6 (50-day MA) — key level that must hold to keep the medium-term uptrend fully intact
- Deeper: 1202-4 (100-day) and 1157-7 (200-day)
Wheat Dec ’26 (ZWZ26)
Based on technical indicators as of Thu, Sep 17, 2026
Last: 726-2 (−4-4 / −0.62%)
Medium- to Long-Term Trend: Strongly Bullish
- Price remains well above all major moving averages:
- 50-day MA: 700-6 (+3.64%)
- 100-day MA: 673-2 (+7.87%)
- 200-day MA: 637-3 (+13.94%)
- Year-to-Date average: 645-3 (+12.53%)
- This confirms a sustained uptrend with significant gains from earlier in the year / from the longer-term averages.
Short-Term Trend: Corrective Pullback / Consolidation
- Price is essentially flat vs the 5-day MA (726-1) but clearly below the 20-day MA (738-1).
- The market has given back some of the recent advance (price is still +3.84% above the 20-day MA).
Momentum Indicators
| Period | Stochastic Condition | RSI | Interpretation |
| 9/14-Day | Oversold (Raw 17–27%, %K low) | 46–51 | Short-term selling pressure washing out |
| 20-Day | Neutral-low | ~53 | Cooling after prior strength |
| 50/100-Day | Moderately bullish | ~54–55 | Longer-term momentum still intact |
Short-term oscillators are oversold, which is constructive within a larger uptrend
(potential for a bounce). Longer-term readings remain supportive but not overbought.
Trend Strength (ADX / Directional Movement)
Short-term ADX (9–20 day): ~21–22 → moderate / non-trending (no strong directional conviction currently).
+DI vs −DI is mixed-to-slightly negative on the very short term (9-day −DI edges higher), then flips positive on 20-day+.
Longer-term ADX is low (50-day 15, 100-day 10) → the big up-move has matured and the market is no longer in a powerful trending phase.
Volatility
ATR% is elevated (~3.2–3.4% on 9–20-day periods) compared with corn and soybeans.
Historic volatility is high (25–33%), indicating largery MA to 20-day MA).
A reclaim of the 20-day MA (738-1) would signal the short-term pullback is ending.
Support in near-term: Psychological
Tim Healy
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Pure Hedge Division
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