Commentary:
New Crop November 21 Beans posted a new high today at 1170. Nice run on this contract since the August lows from 882.6. Old crop beans have received all the attention as both global and domestic ending stocks have dwindled due to mostly adverse weather and insatiable demand. March beans traded to a 1388 this AM, another new high, as weather worries, farmer strikes in Argentina and inflationary tone in the grain sector have encouraged a buy the dips mentality. However nothing in the market goes up or down forever and in my view if the weather doesn’t change for the better soon down in SA, we may not see a sizable sell-off until after July 4th in the grains. I included a spread chart for the Nov 21 beans vs Nov 22 beans. This spread has rallied from 4 cents Nov 21 over to 1.12 Nov 21 over. Retracement levels are seen in the chart. I would suggest one wait until after tomorrows crop report prior to entering in the market. However if one is going to plant beans this year, I would pay attention to this spread and consider it a vehicle for a percentage hedge. In my view if a correction were to occur, the spread could lose 33 cents and trade down to the gap at 74 cents Nov 21 over, or down to the 50 percent retracement at 58 cents. Again my opinion here but I would wait for tomorrows 11 am crop report. The USDA could throw a curve ball against expectations that could just as easy have this spread posting new highs.
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