Grain Spreads: Weather to Rule

Sean Lusk General Commentary

Commentary

July 2022 corn gained, and deferred contracts slipped amid bull spreading and narrow-range trading ahead of USDA’s Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports tomorrow.  The window for a significant weather market scare developing for the corn crop is narrowing a bit, with extended weather forecasts now reaching out into early July and showing no serious threats in my view. The near-term Midwest weather outlook appears to be unthreatening, though dryness could become a concern. No excessive heat is expected in the heart of the Midwest for the next couple of weeks, but many areas will need rain, according to crop and weather scouts. The National Weather Service shows “most forecast models are offering some timely rain, but its distribution may not be ideally suited leaving some areas drier biased while others get a little boost in moisture.” In my view it is never the same everywhere regarding weather and its impact on future yields. That said these forecasts can change in a New York Minute. So, I’m looking the charts for direction post report tomorrow.  For tomorrow’s USDA acreage update, USDA is expected to raise its forecast for U.S. corn plantings by about 370,000 acres, to 89.86 million, per a Reuters survey of analysts. A weekly December 2022 chart attached below attached below. Technical levels into next week come in as follows. First support in my view is the 50-day moving average at 6.39. A close under and it trendline support at 6.33. A close under that level and its 6.22. A close under that level and we could see December corn trade to unchanged on the year at 5.93. Resistance next week comes in at 6.71. A close above and its 6.82. a move above this level could push corn to 7.04 and then up at 7.12. My technical opinion here. 

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Sean Lusk

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