Commentary
US weather forecasts dominated the market today as the 10-day outlook showed some wetter solutions from what was seen on Friday. In my opinion the good to excellent condition rating dropping 2 points from last week at 73 percent good to excellent has been priced in. It has been too dry in the Eastern Corn Belt but that may change in the 1 to 5 day and more importantly in the 6 to 10 forecasts. Inspections remain strong for Corn as the US has shipped 1.29 million metric tons vs 830K this time last year. Second crop corn harvest in Brazil is 21 percent harvested versus 10 percent last week and 5 percent last year. Weather can flip bullish and bearish at any moment, so until it does, we will watch technical levels. The next big data point is the planting progress/grain stocks report on June 28th. The fear into that report is that corn acres get lowered further than expected. That could have ramifications for the balance sheet. We should see some short covering from funds who are short approximately 225K contracts. However, where will the market be prior to that short covering taking place? Dec corn needs to hold the 4.58/4.60 area. Should it not hold we could drop to 4.46/48 quickly. Resistance is 4.66 and 4.71. A strong close over 4.71 and the market could test trendline resistance at 4.83 and potentially retest 4.95 quickly in my opinion.
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